One of the most outstanding “Opinion” pieces to be written anywhere was in The Wall Street Journal, Thurs, July 20, 2010, p. A13: “The CIA Solution for Afghanistan” by Jack Devine.
In a nut shell: “There is no ‘victory’ to be had there. But we can prevent it from becoming a haven for Al Qaeda with a covert strategy based on Predator drones and alliances with local leaders,” according to Devine.
Mr. Devine is a former CIA Deputy Director of Operations and Chief of the Afghan Task Force 1986-87. He is now retired to industry.
He starts with something many have said for months that the U.S. military will not achieve anything resembling victory in Afghanistan, no matter how noble the objective and heroic the efforts.
If there is anything to learn from the Gen. Stanley McChrystal demise is that large and heavily armed foreign military forces in Afghanistan are simply the wrong forces to wage the campaigns being fought there? Check the former Soviet army and the British army experiences.
However lofty our efforts seemed to be in Afghanistan, what we are doing is surprisingly similar to the former Soviet occupiers. Most Afghans, some polls say over 65%, would like to see us get out of there.
Devine says that a covert action program would address these concerns. Not to mention it would be much less costly.
Afghanistan is a tribal society and not a nation state – never has been. Family, clan and tribal interest will trump a nation state identity any day. Tribal interests are easily accommodated with money and other assets to help the leaders maintain their positions.
A CIA run “covert” program is achievable as long as our programs are geared to the Afghan tribal system, and religion, cultural, and terrain.
Oh yes, of course, this is not to mention the opium trade that is the cash crop for Afghanistan.
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With satellites overhead, covert eyes and ears on the ground, troop massing or training centers could be targeted with drones. The opium trade will remain challenging and importation will need to be stopped at our borders. If growing dope is to be solved in Afghanistan it will need to be done by the Afghan government which is highly unlikely.