The Persians have not been happy with their Arab neighbors since the seventh century when Persia was invaded by Arab Muslim armies.

Now we have a more public confrontation between Iran and the United Arab Emirates when Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, president of Iran, made visit to a disputed tiny island of Abu Musu which is 47 miles from the Iranian coast and claimed by UAE and Iran.

Iranian nationalism responds happily to this short of think and keeps the Iranian government in a good light with the population.

Abu Musu occupies a commanding position near the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz which see a fifth of all oil transported by ships pass through this coke point.

The Emirates have nothing to fear from Iran because the Gulf Cooperation Council, led by Saudi Arabia, will offset any precipitous move by Iran. This is not to mention the U.S. navy and air power in the region.

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It should be no surprise that Saudi Arabia is interested in the final outcome of the revolution in Syria and is helping the insurgents

The great divide between Saudi and Iran is now front burner in Syria.

The Saudis helping to overthrow Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s Shi’ite minority government and installing a Sunni majority government friendly with Saudi may be well worth it.

Iranian influence has been pushed into the region through Syria. Iranian money, weapons, and trainers have moved from Damascus to Hezbollah and Hamas, not to mention the other Islamic jihad hotspots.

Iran’s commitment to a nuclear bomb has flamed fears in Saudi Arabia that the Islamic Republic seeks regional hegemony.

Saudi supported forces in Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, the Palestinian territories, and Bahrain have all resulted from Iranian interference.

There is one major problem; it could have an effect on the opposition movement by strengthening ideologically allied radical Islamist groups over moderates opposed to the Assad regime.

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The expansion and modernization of the Peoples liberation Army has many wondering what is it all about.

The PLA is the largest army in the world, with an active manpower of 2.3m. However, China’s real military strength is more than just men, guns and ammo. The Pentagon thinks China is planning on acquiring what is called A2/AD, or “anti-access/area denial” capabilities. The idea is to use asymmetric warfare and stop the US Navy with lots of anti-ship missiles, modern submarines, cyber-information warfare and anti-satellite weapons.

In the western Pacific, that would mean targeting America’s aircraft-carrier groups and amphibious assault groups.

It is no secret that the U.S. distraction in Iraq and Afghanistan has neglected the most economically dynamic region and it has responded inadequately to China’s growing military power and political assertiveness. According to senior American officials, China has the ambition and increasingly the power to implement regional hegemony.

According to the Chinese military leaders they are laying the foundations of modernization for the future. The next decade should see what is called the deployment of advanced military platforms and information warfare – bringing them together as an integrated network. They believe that the two processes should be completed by 2020.

Taiwan is the main point for China’s military focus. In 1996 the U.S. reacted to Chinese ballistic-missile tests carried out near Taiwan by sending two aircraft-carrier groups into the Taiwan Strait. Since then China’s strategy has been largely built around the possibility of armed conflict in which China’s forces would not only have to overcome opposition from Taiwan but also to deter, delay or defeat any American attempt to interfere.

In 2005 China passed the Taiwan Anti-Secession Law, which demands a military response should Taiwan ever declare independence or even if China thinks all possibility of peaceful unification has
been lost.

The range of forces facing Taiwan with the new A2/AD potential to push the forces of other countries over the horizon indicates that they see the guarantor of their security will always be there for them.

But there is more to the military situation than arms and new doctrine. There are three major factors to be considered. 1st, China now has a vital national interest in the stability of the global economic system.

2d, as some sensible American policymakers have said, it is not a matter of surprise that a country of China’s importance in the world should want armed forces which reflect that.

3d, the PLA may not be as advertized particularly after the embargoes placed on China after the Tiananmen Square protests of 1989. China wants to produce high-performance equipment and many  think this is why the U.S. military, industrial and DoD offices are often hit by cyber-attacks that appear to come from China. China’s defense industry may be improving but it remains behind western technology and must catch up.

China’s military openly says that closing the gap between U.S. and China is at least 10 years away. Additionally, China says it has no need to be a military peer of the US.

All this said, China views the U.S as a declining power, but at the same time believes Washington is capable of fighting back to undermine, and even disrupt, the economic and military growth that point to China becoming the world’s most powerful nation.

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While the U.S. has a myopic focused on Afghanistan the Administration may have lost its capability to work with Pakistan.

Pakistan is still fuming with internal strife after the earthquake and the floods that have weakened the Pakistan government rule in most of the country. There is no rule in the Northwest Territories, Pak Taliban control much of the border with Afghanistan, terrorist groups like the LeT (terrorist who attacked Mumbai) are supported by the Pak Army Inter-Service Intelligence – ISI -agency (their CIA, FBI and DHS all rolled into one)  and Baluchistan is ripe for a major insurgency.

The drone UAV strikes into Pakistan have been a source of tension for some time. While many UAV attacks have most likely killed many Taliban and Al Qaeda fighters, the death of Pakistani civilians has acerbated the problems

NATO Supply trucks are still stuck in Pakistan

The explanation for the incident where NATO killed 24 Pakistani soldiers has never been accepted.

Pustans are part of the ethnic group in Afghan and Pakistan.

The attack on the Osama bin Laden compound was a serious bl;ow to Pakistan prestige.

This is not to ignore the ever present cold war with India and both are nuclear armed states. On top of all this is the tension between the Pakistani civilian government and the military leadership.

Why the Pakistan alliance with the Taliban?

Pakistan needs a friendly state to its their west to provide maneuver room in the event of war with India. Without resorting to nuclear weapons the much larger Indian army may over run much of Pakistan and the Pakistani army would need to retreat west to survive.

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Unbelievably, the United States has come under increasing pressure from local political and Latin American leaders to rethink its drug control policy—and specifically, to start talking about decriminalization.

To quote one reporter who thinks we need to legalize drugs: “This debate is long overdue for many practical reasons; every pundit in every relevant country seems to agree that the drug war long ago failed. But there is also a very good ethical reason to start rethinking current US strategy… As the world’s largest consumers of narcotics, the American market has stoked violence, conflict and armed insurgency, corruption, and human rights abuses abroad.”

The so-called “Drug War” has yet to be really fought. Therefore, how can it be declared “failed?” Everything so far has simply been cosmetic or politically correct.

There has been no serious effort on the part of our political leaders to halt any type of drugs from crossing the border – no real military sentries or surveillance equipment to help the Border Patrol. To make matters worse when some states like Texas and Arizona try to enact laws to address the border problem they get sued by the Department of Justice.

Most law enforcement agencies and medical clinics who treat drug users know that marijuana or uppers or downers are “gateway” drugs to more hard stuff.

Many former casual users of marijuana will tell anyone they want a bigger kick after the MJ wears off.

Drug users, pushers, academics and social activists advocating for legalization are demanding it to satisfy their own greedy needs – money or drugs.  Then there are those who seek political advantage for votes.

Now, the sitting presidents of countries including Colombia, Honduras, Mexico and Guatemala are talking that Washington should change course.

It is true that the U.S. is the country whose consumers are keeping the market booming. However, let’s be honest, when Mexico is at war with its cartels, the United States is, essentially, also at war. Unfortunately, the U.S. sure doesn’t act like it.

Larry Martines, noted law enforcement expert, has said: “BILLIONS have been spent for GADGETS, with token appearances by the National Guard and there is no political will from the white house or congress by the last 3 presidents. All the taxpayers money has been spent to make it APPEAR we were doing something when in fact we were in reality putting a bandage over a problem that needs serious surgery.”

Many law enforcement agencies along the border know that the drug traffickers are moving to methamphetamine because it is more easily transported and is bringing in more profit.

Very few have considered the environment impact of meth labs. They pour chemical in the sewers and the rivers and that kills all aquatic life and is dangerous to water treatment plants.

The U.S. fight in the drug war has not really begun to fight.

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According to Ken Dilanian, Los Angeles Times, March 11, 2012, “Iran’s record of deceit fuels worry over President Obama’s assurances that he’ll know if Tehran starts trying to build a nuclear weapon:. Skeptics Doubt U.S. Can Be Certain About Iran’s Nuclear Progress.”

According to Dilanian: “Despite President Obama’s assurances that the United States will know if Tehran begins to secretly build a nuclear bomb, some senior officials familiar with U.S. intelligence and spying capabilities in Iran are doubtful.”

Surprisingly, there is some unusual thinking in the U.S. news media that doesn’t accept the National Intelligence Estimate that it will be some time before Iran has a nuclear bomb.

The issue is important because the White House has suggested that U.S. satellites, sensors and spies, as well as United Nations inspections, provide reliable reports to decide whether diplomacy has failed and military action is needed to stop Iran from assembling a nuclear device.

It is no surprise that over the last decade, Western intelligence agencies have twice discovered large-scale Iranian facilities built to enrich uranium. The question now is whether Iran is hiding other nuclear enrichment sites or weapons research centers and has already built a bomb.

Iran’s interaction with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has been unfruitful. Tehran has refused to fully show all nuclear production sites and answer questions about what the U.N. agency calls “possible military dimensions” to its program. It drew back on one issue last week, saying it would permit inspectors to visit a military base that it had previously put off-limits but then changes its mind and would not let the inspectors visit the site.

In my opinion, Iran has the bomb or can build one any time.

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Around one year after the Arab revolutions began with so much promise, the much turned darkly ominous – no more so than in Syria. At this time last year, many had hoped there might be a start of the most significant and positive changes in the Arab world since the creation of the modern Middle East after the First World War. However, events are now moving quickly in the opposite direction, highlighting the sharply reduced influence of the U.S. The fighting in Syria’s civil war may be more violent than peaceful in the year ahead.

The underlying cause of the Syrian uprising is decades of oppression and exploitation by a minority Shi’ite clan imposing its will on the majority Sunni, a police state that uses all instruments of force and violence to achieve its objectives, and a populace struggling to survive and stay away from the punishing arms of the regime.

Iran has poured a many resources into the country. There are Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps encampments and Iranian weapons and advisers throughout Syria and some of the Hezbollah forces from Lebanon have joined the Assad regime in butchering civilians in Syria. Iran is undoubtedly determined to keep its influence over the country regardless of what happens to Assad.

Syrian refugees pour into Turkey, Iraq and Lebanon, to flee the continuing assault on the civilian population by the Syrian Shi’ite led government.

The UN General Assembly voted overwhelmingly, 137-12, Thursday to condemn Syria’s brutal crackdown on anti-government protesters against the country’s president, Bashar al-Assad. The nonbinding UN resolution is largely symbolic.

The UN passed a Saudi Arabia-drafted resolution condemning the violence in Syria and fully supporting the Arab League’s plan for political transition. The move to the General Assembly came after a UN Security Council resolution that was vetoed by China and Russia.

The Syrain minority Alawite belong to the same Muslim offshoot Shi’ite as Syrian President while the majority of the Syrian population is Sunni.

On another matter, according to the Suez Canal authority: “Two Iranian ships crossed through the Suez Canal following permission from the Egyptian armed forces,” on Friday. The destroyer and a supply ship could be on their way to the Syrian coast, as Iran and Syria agreed to cooperate on naval training a year ago, and Tehran has no naval agreement with any other country in the region.

Many of the region’s Sunnis are arrayed against Syria’s leader, including the kingdoms of the Gulf. U.S. intelligence officials said they now believe al Qaeda operatives are joining the battle against the Assad regime.

Iraqis have allegedly been arming both sides of the Syrian conflict. Sunni leaders in Iraq have claimed to be arming the opposition to Assad. Syrian opposition members have accused Iraq’s Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki of aiding Assad by turning a blind eye to the passage of Iraqi Shiite militiamen, as well as Iranian fighters and weapons transiting to Syria through Iraq.

This is a time of real testing for American policy. U.S. vast military strength will do little good in the revolutionary Arab moments.

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The Administration’s new national strategic plan has a lot of European leaders raising eyebrows. There is some agreement that the focused air-sea battle doctrine is necessary to counter China’s growing military capabilities and address concerns of allies in the region and European commerce with the Far East.

There is already many voices of concern that the Administration says it will not have to conduct counterinsurgency operations after Afghanistan. Additionally, many are questioning the idea that counter-terrorist operations can be left to drones and special operations forces.

Nearly 80% of the countries contributing forces to the NATO-led coalition in Afghanistan are European.

The main question is what is the future of U.S. forces in Europe?

The UK Economist wrote that there are three reasons for looking at the new U.S. strategy as flawed. First, they say the European region is no bed of stability with the Georgia border with Russia, Kosovo’s border with Serbia and Turkey’s border with Iraq and Syria. This is not to mention that Israel is in the EUCOM AOR. Second, The Economist says that European based US forces are closer to most potential flash points than bases in the U.S.  And, third, the new strategy places emphasis on military-to-military cooperation and the best way to do that is to train with the countries you may fight with.

The number of U.S. forces in Europe has fallen from 213,000 in 1989 to around 41,000 now.

It seems obvious that the U.S. does not do partnership capability building until the U.S. runs into political troubles at home. The main problem of talking up the importance of partnering is hard to understand while the U.S. is turning its back on Europe.

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Some say the Iranian threat to close the Straights of Hormuz is over. Actually there never was a threat.

Trying to close the Straights would bring a full military response against Iran from U.S. forces in the Gulf, possibly other Arab states, and turn Tehran¹s few remaining international allies against Iran.

The Straights would seem to be an easy target, a bottleneck only about 30 miles across at its narrowest point between Iran and Oman.

Oil tankers carrying one-sixth of the world¹s oil supply pass through the Straights, exiting the
Persian Gulf into the Arabian Sea and on to market. The tankers move through two two-mile-wide shipping lanes, one entering the Gulf, one exiting.

Also, it is well known that closing the Straights would be a heavier blow to Iran stopping the approximately 2.5 billion barrels a day of oil it exports, which provide some 80 percent of its revenue.

Additionally, Iran has very little refining capability. Most of the country’s refining needs come from other Gulf states.

I don¹t think Iran willing to close the Straights because the consequences would cost them too much.

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China has a history of shooting itself in the foot whenever it has internal problems.  Recall The Great Leap Forward in the 1950s, a plan by Mao Tse Tung to move China from peasant farmers into a modern society through industrialization and agriculture. It failed miserably with famine that caused over a reported million people in China to perish.  Then, for a lengthy 10 year period from 1966 to 1976 they underwent their Cultural Revolution in which the Communist leadership killed all intellectuals. 

Their population is 1.3 billion and in comparison to ours which is 0.3 billion (point three billion) it seems they can overwhelm us in anything.  In total land mass the U.S. is just a tad larger than China; U.S. arable land mass is 18.01% and China is less with 14.86%.  Water shortages and contamination are a serious problem in China.  The gap between the haves and have nots is growing and there is a serious imbalance between the numbers of marriageable young women versus men.

It was reported that thousands of villagers in Guangdong province’s Wukan village staged protests following the death of a local leader in detention. Roughly 6,000 farmers gathered in the village shouting slogans such as “save Wukan” and “return our farmland.” Wukan is currently surrounded by thousands of paramilitary police officers.

The Chinese Communist Party is acutely concerned that the country is on the verge of major social upheavals as the economy begins to slow. Zhou Yong Kang, the Party Politburo Standing Committee member in charge of state security, has called on all levels of government to prepare to deal with the possible eruption of social unrest.

China may be about due for another fall and if they have any public communications at all, the world fever from the so called “Arab Spring” to our “Occupy” movements will go endemic and soon spread into China and even possibly North Korea.

China is at a crossroads to see if it can move smoothly into the 21st Century or fall as previous great Chinese empires have done.

Cy Kammeier, USMC (Ret) contributed to this column

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