After almost nine years with the second longest war in U.S. History (Moro War in The Philippines: 1902-1913) we leave a precarious situation in Iraq.

Doyle McManus writing for the Los Angeles Times, December 18, 2011, “An Elusive Victory In Iraq,” said it best: “With the final headlong withdrawal this month of U.S. troops from Iraq, President Obama fulfilled a campaign promise to end the war. But was the nearly nine-year mission a success?

“Iraq is still struggling even to ensure its own security. Its air force has no jet fighters, and U.S. officials say it would be unable to detect incoming aircraft in time to stop them. The Iraqi army is improving, but its ability to mount complex operations remains weak. The Iraqis still have a long way to go on intelligence, training and logistics.

“On the political side of things, the democratic system the U.S. fought to establish is becoming increasingly authoritarian and remains divided along tribal and sectarian lines. Its ruling coalition includes parties allied with Iran. Its minority Sunni Muslims and Kurds are worried about their futures.”

News reports are starting to filter out of Iraq that indicates that Prime Minister Nouri Maliki has already started to round up his opposition and throw them in jail. Additionally he has made trips to Tehran, Iran, to “discuss” items of mutual interest with the Iranians.

At an estimated cost of $1 trillion, and nearly 4,500 Americans dead, the Iraq war may stand as proof of a long know axiom:  Victory is elusive, and a nation rarely exits a war with the same objectives it had on the way in.

The question is not did the U.S. accomplish anything in Iraq. The question is will Iraq survive as we know it

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The New York Times, November 5, 2011, pg. 18, reported: “The authoritarian tendencies of Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki of Iraq are well known. But the arrest of more than 600 Iraqis whom the government describes as suspected former members of Saddam Hussein’s Baath Party and army is particularly cynical and reckless. With American troops scheduled to withdraw by year’s end, the last thing Mr. Maliki should be doing is stoking sectarian tensions.”

It is reported that the detainees — a vast majority are probably Sunnis — were rounded up after the Shiite-controlled government supposedly received a tip that former Baathists were plotting a coup. The Maliki government has yet to provide any real evidence of a plot, and the idea that 600 people were involved strains credibility. Almost everyone is highly skeptical.

It is well known that the majority Shiites were badly persecuted under Saddam Hussein’s Sunni-led government. All elected governments since the U.S. invasion have been Shiite-dominated and far more interested in payback than reconciliation.

His government is known to be rife with corruption, holds no credibility in much of what it says, has become more authoritarian, and contributes to severe shortages in public services.

The former U.S. Coalition Provisional Authority, under L. Paul Bremer III, made a stupid move when it disbanded the army and barred Baath Party members from government jobs. Nevertheless, a law passed in 2008 was intended to promote reconciliation by opening jobs to former Baathists. But it has been selective in undermining political opponents.

This leaves one conclusion of when the U.S. leaves Iraq there could be a major civil war or mass exodus of minority groups.

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How will the U.S. end in Iraq?

Considering that many of us thought it was a mistake to invade Iraq in the first place, it was Gen. Colin Powel who put it best: “You break it – you own it.”

It seems that no one in the White House or the Pentagon had a “Plan B” for post hostilities in Iraq. The then SecDef Donald Rumsfeld had no clue as to what chaos would follow the completion of tye invasion.

To make matters worse the most colossal mistake of all was the U.S. potentate in Iraq, L. Paul Bremer III, decision to disband the armed forces. Big mistake.

As the United States prepares to withdraw its last 46,000 troops from that country by the end of 2011, Iraq has become a death trap for competing ideologies.

Nevertheless, Iraq is the place Americans want to forget and the news media doesn’t want to cover.

Although U.S. military deaths are way down, there has been been a resurgence of car bombs and sectarian killings of Iraqis.

The Iraqi government limps along in almost a state of paralysis, and the country ranks at the bottom of the Transparency International Corruption Index (175th out of 178, just above Afghanistan) according to the Philadelphia Inquirer.

It is important to note that the expanding Iranian influence is lost on most in Washington, D.C. Iran can and will reverse Iraq’s slim democratic gains and enlarge Iraq’s sectarian violence, while threatening the U.S. broader interests in the region.

Iran is sending a clear message to Washington that it intends to exert primacy in Baghdad and is reported to have increased its shipment or arms and explosives to the Shi’ites. Tehran appears to have Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki in its control.

Al-Maliki was once a politician who showed independence from the U.S. and Iran. Now Maliki, like any politician who wants to stay in power, has become dependent on an Iranian-backed Shi’ites led by the mad cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who spends most of his time in the Iranian holy city of Qom.

Is this how we want our misguided Iraq adventure to end?

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In a recent meeting I had with a returning Marine officer who had returned from deployment to Iraq, I was surprised at much of what he had to say.

The most important information he has was that 65% of the Iraqi population is under 25 which has created a large generational gap.

He told me that the younger generation is not that religious and blame the Sunni and Shi’ite clerics for much of the death and destruction that has come to Iraq.

The younger men and women want more interaction with the opposite sex and do not hold with the Islamic restrictions on women.

Remains to be seen what the older generation will do to accommodate the younger generation.

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The so called political settlement that was arranged yesterday in Baghdad which left out the Sunni block in the newly formed government is a receipt for disaster. Talk about tension in Iraq? It could lead to civil war.

Interestingly, a story reported by the Philadelphia Inquirer, November 3, 2010, “Questions Raised About Iraq Pullout,”  by Robert Burns, AP, concerning a U.S. report which said tensions may be hard to control after U.S. troops leave in 2011: “The (sic) administration could be overstating what U.S. diplomats can do to contain Iraq’s ethnic and sectarian tensions without U.S. military forces, a State Department audit concluded Tuesday, raising fresh concerns about the planned pullout of American troops next year.”

The auditors questioned whether American diplomats who remain behind will be adequately protected against insurgent violence, and their report faulted Washington for its planning of the transition from a U.S. military-led mission in Iraq to one run by American civilians in 2011.

In its report, the State Department’s office of Inspector General said stability in Iraq may be years away. It went on to warn that the failure of Iraqi political leaders to form a unity government has interfered with the “urgent task” of planning for Washington’s post-2011 diplomatic role.

The Sunni walk out after the Iraqi parliamentary elections for prime minister and selection of ministers spells trouble all across the board.

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It is no secret that many in the Iraqi government particularly the military does not want to pull out all U.S. forces on the current deadline of summer 2011.

Many are concerned that Iraq could still erupt into civil war and collapse into something like Lebanon or even worse Somalia. Civil war will increase the risk of the Kurds wanting independence and spilling over into the Kurds in Turkey and Iran.

Unfortunately, Iraq politics is still unsettled with no clear majority in the March 2010 elections.

So, what is the realistic potential for U.S. forces to stay longer Iraq?

We still have 53,000 U.S. military forces in Germany down from 250,000 during the Cold War.

Japan still has over 35,000 U.S. military personnel on the mainland and Okinawa.

The U.S. and Korean government have agreed to a force level of 28,500.

We should remember the famous quote by Gen. Colin Powell on the Iraqi war which went something like: “You break it – you own it.”

A request from a democratically elected government in Iraq for the U.S. to stay longer after the 2011 deadline will be hard to deny.

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Many refer to what is going on in Afghanistan and Iraq as insurgencies.

Actually it is a civil war in each country. Insurgency sound better and allows some form of cover for the occupiers.

We are fighting one faction of a nine-year-old civil war in Afghanistan. Much of Afghan is inclined to be on the Afghan government side. Most of the southeastern part of the country is with the Taliban who ruled the country until the U.S. ran them out. This not a traditional insurgency, but success comes to whoever ends up with the support of the most Afghans.

Even if the allies and the Afghan government bring some form of an end to the civil war it will probably leave parts of Afghanistan out of their control. The majority Pushtuns, main support of the Taliban, have most of their population in Pakistan while the war rages in their home provinces.

President Hamid Karzai has said that he will soon name the members of a council tasked with pursuing peace talks with rebels willing to break with Al Qaeda and recognize the government in Kabul.

Lots of luck on that idea.

In Iraq it’s a conflict is between the Sunnis (supported by Saudi Arabia) and the Shiites (supported by Iran) with the Kurds trying to stay out of the fray.

After almost six months of stalemate there still is no newly elected government in Iraq and the Sunnis are not seeing any hope for their successful showing in the elections bringing some stability to their home area.

Many believe that as soon as the U.S. is totally gone from Iraq, the final civil war will rage across the country. It’s anyone’s guess as to how Afghan will fair after the withdrawal deadline.

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Interesting story in TIME magazine by Bobby Ghosh, September 6, 2010, “Going Home.”

The author points out that there were no “triumphant banners” but soldiers were going home. He was writing about the National Guard 1st bn, 116th Infantry.

“They had accomplished their mission; it was not their fault it had been redefined over and over again during seven years and five months of combat operations,” wrote Ghosh.

He went on to write that they did what ever their political masters required of them: “Smashed Saddam’s Army – check? Crushed the Shi’ite Mahdi army – check? Wrest Falujah from Sunni insurgency – twice (well really only once) – check? Make friends with the same insurgents to defeat al-Qaeda (not really the same)? Check.”

This would be a great story if it wasn’t so full of errors.

We need to remember that there are over 50,000 military personnel still in Iraq and two were killed just this week.

Changing a name form a Heavy Combat Brigade to an Advisory and Assistance Brigade might make good copy for uninformed or ill informed news media but the troops know that the mission is still the same.

Combat by any other name still smells like combat.

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The Washingtonpost.com, August 31, 2010, has an interesting headline: Gates: All Is Not Well As Combat Role Ends, By Anne Gearan, Associated Press.

All is not well –what an understatement.

All is not well in Iraq as the U. S. formally closes down its “combat mission” there, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Tuesday, warning that political paralysis and continued sectarian violence cloud the Iraqis future.

Gates said conditions in Iraq are much better; however, as the United States shifts to an advisory role seven years after the U.S.-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein.

“I am not saying all is, or necessarily will be, well in Iraq,” Gates said, noting the lack of a new government more than six months after national elections, and continued sectarian tension.

“This is not a time for premature victory parades or self-congratulation, even as we reflect with pride on what our troops and their Iraqi partners have accomplished,” Gates told an American Legion audience.

Cannot understand how 50,000 U.S. troops still in Iraq will not be in “combat missions.”

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