The U.S. is under attack from foreign Intelligence agencies, private sector companies, rogue academic nit wits, and hackers form over a dozen countries. Even when our enemies are identified, there is little we can now do about it at this time.

Cyber spies, terrorist, and criminal hackers can quickly steal large amounts of sensitive data while remaining unknown to the victims.

Why? We have no proper laws against it. Nor do w have laws to return the favor.

Defense News, May 7, 2012 “Debate Slows New U.S. Cyber Rules,” by Zachary Fryer-Biggs writes: “Despite the ongoing concern about the escalating pace of cyber attacks, a new set of standing rules of engagement for cyber operations — policy guidelines that would specify how the Pentagon would respond to different types of cyber attacks — is being delayed (in Congress)  by a debate over the role of the
U.S. military in defending non-military networks…”

Gen. James Cartwright, USMC (Ret), now with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the debate boils down to concern over how well DHS is defending the public, and whether DoD needs to step in.

There is a need for clear standing rules of engagement which gives the U.S. authorities to maximize preauthorization of defense responses and empower activity at the lowest level.

Too much common sense?

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In 2001, the destruction of the Twin Towers demonstrated no greater threat to homeland security from a non-state actor than that posed by Al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Ten years later, Al Qaeda still proclaims the intent and capability to attack the U. S.

Al Qaeda’s last successful attack on the West was in the United Kingdom in 2005, but a steady flow of the group’s operatives or fellow travelers have been detected and disrupted in the United States, Norway, Denmark, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Pakistan.

Embolden by the success of 9/11, Al Qaeda has maintained its intent to conduct high-casualty attacks against the United States and its Western allies. A review of Al Qaeda plots since 9/11 reveals that the group has continued to focus on high-profile political, economic, symbolic, and infrastructure targets, with a particular fixation on international air travel.

Since 9/11, the U. S. has faced a threat from Al Qaeda not only as a terrorist organization but also as an ideology.  There is now a global Islamic jihadist movement of Al Qaeda-affiliated and inspired groups and individuals. These groups have threatened U.S. interests overseas; however, the growth of these decentralized, widespread movements have increased the threats to U.S. interests at home and abroad.

One major group called Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has sought to radicalize and inspire others to conduct attacks against the U. S. In July 2010, AQAP published the first edition of its English-language online magazine, “Inspire,” which is a glossy, popular publication geared to a Western audience. In a number of published editions of Inspire, AQAP has provided religious justification and technical guidance, including information on manufacturing explosives and training with weapons to encourage lone wolf operatives to stage independent attacks.

Lone wolf terrorist may be the major perpetrator of terrorism for the future.

The threat has transformed significantly since 9/11 and will continue to evolve in the years ahead. The U.S. top priority remains to prevent, deter, and disrupt terrorist activities to see that no one accomplishes their mission.

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Iran’s Mahmoud Ahmadinejad spent a five day visit to Latin America where he showed that Iran still has allies south of our border.  Unfortunately, very little was covered in the U.S. news media. BBC and The Economist magazine can always be counted on to print or broadcast what some chose to ignore.

Mahmoud called on Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez where he got the red carpet treatment. Then he joined Hugo in the presidential inauguration of Nicaragua’s Danny Ortega for Ortega constitutionally dubious third presidential term.

He then flew on to Cuba and Ecuador.

This was his fifth trip to the LatAm region.

The US has down played all these visit as if they never happened and says there is no concern on terrorist activity from Iran.

Funny, I wonder why the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Quds Force, the foreign terrorist arm of the IRGF, has forces in Venezuela.

Many analyst claims that HizbAllah, a close IRGF surrogate, is involved in cocaine trafficking from LatAm.

HizbAllah has been reported to have access to the Mexican Los Zetas people and drug smuggling routes to smuggle people into the U.S. As things heat up with Iran… guess what might be in store for the U.S.

For Mahmoud and his LatAm host there is surely more than political theater here.

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Is Al Qaeda waiting in the wings or are they too weak to act in the so called Arab Spring?

The conflict between protesters and certain Arab governments has showed no signs of easing even after reshuffling of interim governments. Thousands of people are still marching in the streets for a variety of reasons. This has led some to believe that Al Qaeda’s is only staying low.

Most credible experts see that Al Qaeda will not plan any immediate action to publicly support the protestors. They think the street demonstrations will lead to further chaos. They see no popular political force capable of providing alternative leadership to some autocratic regimes.

It seems obvious that Al Qaeda will wait and see if the chaos will sufficiently bring down the state apparatus to allow them to establish an alternative.

The unrest in Egypt is home to some ultra-radical Islamic groups like the Muslim Brotherhood and they could lead to one of two things – democratization of society or drive the country into the hands of Islamic extremist.

Egypt might provide the Muslim Brotherhood the opportunity for a significant revival while Al Qaeda is still waiting for the moment to capitalize on the chaos.

So, where is Al Qaeda?

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After several days of surveillance on Mr. Anwar Al Awlaki, armed drones took off from a base in the Arabian Peninsula, flew into northern Yemen and fired Hellfire missiles at a car carrying Al Awlaki and possibly other members of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQIAP) It is reported that this attack may include another American who had run the Al Qaeda English-language Internet magazine.

The search for Mr. Awlaki, the American-born Islamic cleric, was initiated because he was a criminal figure in the Global World on Terrorism.

So what is this nonsense with a debate in Washington about the legality, and morality of killing an American citizen?

Left wing civil libertarians and Muslim-American advocates questioned how the U.S. could kill an American citizen without a trial. It has been said that killing him amounted to summary execution without the due process of law guaranteed by the Constitution.

American law states that any group that is at war with the US should cause a man to lose his citizenship if he joined a foreign military group let alone committed a terrorist act

The Law states:

“Loss of citizenship (INA § 349, 8 USC § 1481) Section 349 of the INA [8 USC § 1481] specifies several conditions under which US citizenship may be lost. These include: becoming a naturalized citizen of another country, or declaring allegiance to another country, after reaching age 18; serving as an officer in a foreign country’s military service, or serving in the armed forces of a country which is engaged in hostilities against the US; working for a foreign government (e.g., in political office or as a civil servant); formally renouncing one’s US citizenship before duly authorized US officials; or committing treason against, or attempting or conspiring to overthrow the government of, the US.”

Executive Order #12333, prohibiting assassinations, was lifted by President G. W. Bush following 9/11 with the overwhelming approval of Congress. Bush also signed an executive order allowing for the killing of “identified” terrorists wherever and whenever they are located. In the case of Yemen Al Awlaki was killed with the prior authorization of the Yemeni government to strike AQ on their turf.

Additionally, the Supreme Court made its views clear in the 1942 Ex Parte Quirin case dealing with Nazi saboteurs: “Citizenship in the United States of an enemy belligerent does not relieve him from the consequences of belligerency.”

Only the uninformed or sensationalism mongers try to obfuscate the real issues.

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1. Today Al Qaeda is at a low point administratively and organizationally. There is a growing struggle for leadership developing. Ayman al Zawahiri is not the inspirational Emir that Osama bin Laden was. Everyone in the terrorism field agrees that Zawahiri is abrasive and is not liked by many in AQ. According to government intelligence (current and former) AQ is at a membership slow down as well.

2. Now Iran is once again being considered for an AQ safe haven in that part of South Asia. Zawahiri and surviving AQ middle management have strong ties to Iran. Also, in the past year and a half, 20 of Al Qaeda’s top 30 leaders identified by American intelligence have been killed. Pakistan is no longer as safe as it was for AQ leaders.

3. At the operational level, AQ is still a deadly threat and intelligence intercepts suggesting WMD of the deadly toxin types are resurfacing. This is the type of weapon that is easily transported and delivered to a targeted nation. I would say that AQ is as deadly as it has always been, but less than capable to carry out another 9/11 operation, at least in the USA.

4. AQ is no longer a single movement led from the top by bin Laden or anyone else. It now comprises affiliates that spread from the Philippines to the Sahel. Somalia and most recently Nigeria – the Boko Harum group - have established a relationship within this Jihadi terrorism “franchise.” Formal affiliation with AQ helps to bring in funding from wealthy Jihadi sympathizers or “tribute payers” (for insurance against attacks!) in the Gulf States, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, to name but a few locations.

5. Muslim youth today that are influenced by AQ and its call for Jihad make up a small percentage, so far, of the Muslim populations, particularly those located in the EU and the USA. However, that number could spread if propagandizing via some overwhelmingly successful attack were to occur against the “infidel” anywhere in the Western World

6. I see more of a Muslim Brotherhood influence in the current “Arab Spring” uprisings. Not so much at this time of AQ. However, it is very possible due to the disarray and violence in Egypt, Syria and Libya that AQ supporters may slip into leading roles using the Muslim Brotherhood as cover. Neither group is good for the Western World. It was the MB that created the belief system that AQ was founded upon. Zawahiri is a former MB member.

7. Key elements of AQ I believe have shifted to Yemen, Somalia and the Maghreb. Yemen  in particular will become the key area or jumping off spot internationally for future AQ activities. Next to watch is the Salafi movement (AQIM) in Algeria, Morrocco and the Sahel. They will be focusing on the EU, while Al Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula (AQAP), located in Yemen, will focus on U.S. targets worldwide. In particular the American homeland, according to many US experts.   

8. Perhaps AQ’s most lasting legacy will be the decentralization that mushroomed under its guidance by spreading terrorist affiliates around the world. This includes not only full-fledged organizations, but “lone wolves” as well.

9. Predictions: Look for closer ties with Iran and Hizb-Allah by AQ affiliates. A spreading of Al Qaeda encouraged violence across Nigeria and the Sahel. Eventually a major Jihadi attack against the West. Or several smaller ones in nature but not violence against one specific nation after another.

10. The one thing Al Qaeda and its affiliates cannot do is remain passive for any length of time. They then become perceived as irrelevant to “the cause.” Then the funding, Jihad volunteers and other sources of support dry up!

By: Lawrence Martines (Well known AT/CT Expert with 35 years experience and many publications.)

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The Transportation Security Administration is being asked by Congress to look at the screening process in Israel, which uses early detection techniques at airports. There was an editorial in The Washington Times last week which praised El Al, the Israeli national airline, as employing the “smarter approach” of using special intelligence analysis which allows them to predict which travelers constitute a possible threat and which do not.

The Israelis use a form of intelligent review of passenger characteristics that may be recognized in potential terrorist.

No, not profiling but maybe technology at work..

Additionally, law enforcement officials searching for an easier way to confirm someone’s identity may have a solution in sight. A new device is nearing the mass production stage that combines iris, facial and fingerprint recognition scanning into a smartphone, giving nearly instantaneous identification results to an officer using it in the field.

It is reported that the handheld Mobile Offender Recognition and Information System (MORIS) connects to a smartphone and allows a user to take a snapshot of a person’s face or iris, or a fingerprint scan, and then transmit the data over a secure wireless network to a national database. If a match is found, seconds later the officer using the device is given confirmation on the person in question, including any previous
criminal history.

Hopefully, all this can help in the Global War on Terrorism.

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Administration officials are trying to convince the public that killing of Osama bin Laden and the toll of seven years of CIA drone strikes have pushed Al Qaeda to the brink of collapse. The new Director of the CIA, Leon Panetta, and the top U.S. national security officials now suggest a potential finish line in the fight against Al Qaeda, since bin Laden was killed by U.S. forces in the raid in Pakistan.

However, the recently departed director of the national counterterrorism center said last Thursday that Al Qaeda in Pakistan still posed a serious threat to the United States, and he warned that the comments by the Administration were, well, off base.,

Michael E. Leiter, who resigned three weeks ago as head of the National Counterterrorism Center, is the most significant opposition to a growing number of statements that the death of Osama bin Laden and years of Central Intelligence Agency drone strikes in Pakistan have brought the United States within reach of defeating Al Qaeda.

This is wishful thing if not political posturing for the next presidential election when they fail to mention the franchises of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula in Yemen, Al Qaeda in Somalia and Al Qaeda in Iran.

Mr. Leiter also raised concerns that a decade of intensive paramilitaryoperations by the Central Intelligence Agency in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen had begun to change the nature of the spy service, and not
necessarily all for the better. He spoke in an interview at the Aspen Security Forum at the Aspen Institute. The New York Times is a sponsor of the conference, and Mr. Leiter was interviewed by David E. Sanger, The Times¹s chief Washington correspondent.

The only way of ending the threat that Al Qaeda and all of its affiliates pose to the United States and its interests around the world is to kill all the leaders, remove all safe havens and confiscate all bank accounts.

That is not going to happen any time soon.

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 First, it is important to note that Arabic nouns can be spelled a number of different ways. Al Qaeda at RAND is spelled al Qa’ida.

Below is an excerpt from RAND document dated 24 May 11, regarding the status of al Qa’ida today.

“A current assessment of the al Qa’ida threat requires an understanding of what al Qa’ida is today. With a leadership structure primarily in Pakistan, al Qa’ida is a notably different organization than a decade ago and can perhaps best be described as a “complex adaptive system.” The term refers to systems that are diverse (composing multiple networks) and adaptive (possessing the capacity to evolve and learn from experience). One key element of complex adaptive systems is they include a series of networks, which are often dispersed and small. Different nodes can communicate and conduct their campaigns with some coordination. As terrorist expert Bruce Hoffman argued, al Qa’ida is “in the main flatter, more linear, and more organizationally networked” than it has previously been. The killing of bin Laden may accelerate this decentralization.

“Al Qa’ida today can perhaps best be divided into five tiers: central al Qa’ida, affiliated groups, allied groups, allied networks, and inspired
individuals.”

While the above analysis is true for Al Qaeda,  it does not explain other the competition of terrorist groups that are expanding across the globe, e.g. Hamas, Hezbollah, LeT, etc.

We cannot lose focus and think Al Qaeda is the only threat to the U.S. from terrorism.

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Based on my experience (Larry Martines) in dealing with violent extremists there are two basic steps one must take when dealing with terrorists groups or movements:

1. The most obvious is find them and stop them from further actions by whatever means necessary. That is a given.

2. However, the other that is equally important is disruption! This means a forced change of modus operandi. Having to quickly change things both mundane – movement, logistics, communications, passports; plus advanced/aggressive methods – financing, weapons acquisition, targeting, transportation, etc., – creates disruption, even chaos. Mistakes are made by the terrorists, perhaps things even come to a temporary stall. 

This gives the CT hunters and Intel people some time to find and fix their objectives. 

By NOT releasing the photos of bin Laden and burying him at sea without a media circus taking place creates “disruption” in the larger AQ movement. An excellent strategic move by the DOD and the CIA. Good psyops!

Amongst the AQ worldwide movement, there will always be those that think we are holding Bin Laden in some black site – the one at Diego Garcia comes to mind. Close by the carrier and convenient - and that OBL is spending a lot of quality time with skilled interrogators. Since OBL is not known to be personally  the physical hero type – he has generally considered himself the next Mahdi, although in some safe site away from the front lines – it would not be too much of a stretch or expectation by AQ members who fall into the “conspiracy” group, that OBL might be selling them out under pressure. 

Add that to the fact that we have gone public with the fact that we have captured a “treasure trove” of useful Intel on the raid, and you have achieved “Disruption” – at least temporarily. 

This does not mean that there will not be “lone wolf” revenge attacks on US citizens and sites, but maybe not a major event. This takes organization and planning, something that is on the back burner for the moment…..This gives our side the breathing space it needs to start rolling up AQ networks, starting in Yemen.

By: Larry Martines – Noted CT expert

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