The knowledgeable and reliable website www.stratfor.com, 28 Oct 2010, carried a report, “Notions of Progress and Negotiation in Afghanistan,” from The Washington Post, that the U.S. intelligence community is largely of one mind when it comes to Afghanistan: The Taliban are suffering only fleeting setbacks while maintaining their resilience and ability to re-establish and rejuvenate themselves. This makes for a rather stark contrast to the portrait U.S. Gen. David Petraeus and others have been attempting to paint of progress in Afghanistan, and particularly against the Taliban, ahead of the White House’s December review of the efficacy of the counterinsurgency-focused strategy being pursued.

Stratfor.com went on to report:

“These claims of progress come down to several main themes: First, a concerted special operations forces-led effort to capture or kill senior Taliban leadership is achieving results; second, core Taliban turf is being seized and their sanctuaries are being rolled back into deeper and more isolated corners of Afghanistan (as well as across the border in Pakistan) – essentially, the Taliban have been robbed of momentum and initiative; third, the Taliban are negotiating – with the implication that they have no choice but to negotiate.

The United States has no prospect of defeating the Taliban with the troops, resources and time it is willing to dedicate to the conflict.”

Could not say it any better myself.

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One thing that would do more to end the war than anything else – seal the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Of course this is easier said than done.

Insurgent recruiting is increasing in parts of the east of Afghanistan, with most new recruits coming from the Arabs, Pakistanis, Chechens and Tajiks.

The Pakistan military were battling Pakistani Taliban insurgents, mostly from Pakistan’s Bajaur
and Mohmand tribal areas on the frontier. Unfortunately, the major flooding in central Pakistan has interrupted this campaign.

It has announced by NATO that the Taliban were helping Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) members slip into
Afghanistan through the eastern province of Nangarhar. LeT is infamous for their attack on Mumbai, India.

Until they slow infiltration of new recruits and supplies for the Afghan Taliban, there will be no successful conclusion to the war in Afghanistan.

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After reading the USA TODAY, Wed, Aug 4, 2010, “The Forum,” with an opinion piece by a Mr. Ronald Goldfarb, “Mr. President, quit Afghanistan, too,” I was so infuriated that I knew I had to write a piece for my blog. But, then I thought this guy Mr. Goldfarb is so stupid he would never understand what I would write anyway.

The first part of  The Forum that got me was the stupid reference blaming the U.S. military: ”Newly elected presidents …get rolled by the military into fighting unnecessary wars.

Then Mr. Goldfarb went on to say: “John Kennedy learned the lesson fast, after our fiasco in Cuba.”

The problem for Mr. Goldfarb is that  the U.S. Military advised Kennedy against any action in Cuba and it was the CIA who led the Cuban counter-revolutionaries to the Bay of Pigs while the U.S. military was ordered to sit on their hands by Kennedy. Mr. Goldfarb must have spoken stupidly.

It never ceases to amaze me how many stupid writers try to rewrite history to suit their political persuasion and preconceived notions.

So what changed my mind to write something?

Sitting in a doctors office awaiting my appointment, I saw a picture on the cover of TIME magazine, August 9, 2010, of a woman with her nose cut off. The caption at the side was: “What Happnes if we Leave Afghanistan.” The story inside was all about the plight of women in Afghanistan and what would happne if we left the country to the Taliban. The woman on the cover now has a gapping hole where her nose used to be becaue she ran away from an abusive husband – Taliban punishment.

Mr. Goldfarb probably has never read about what happend to over a million people in the former Republic of Vietnam when we quit and ran.

It’s anyones guess what will happen to those identified by another stupid journalist, Mr. Julian Assange (he calls himself a journalist), with his WikiLeaks that identified Afghans who have helped the U.S. The Taliban will do more than cut off noses.

As a famous movie character “Forrst Gump” once said: “Stupid is …as Stupid does.”

A news editor at USA Today should have caught the historical inaccuracies but then again they’re journalist too.

Never did understand what Mr. Goldfarb meant about quitting Afghanistan “too.”

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When it was announced at West Point, U.S. Military Academy, that there was a new strategy for Afghanistan it was argued that by setting a deadline of next summer to begin drawing down troops he would create a sense of urgency for the Afghan government to take the lead in the fight, while acknowledging the limits of America¹s patience with the longest war in its history.

What a gross misunderstanding of the Afghan mind. They measure time in years not days or months. They think of the present and what’s in it for them. they think of family, clan andtribes. They do not have a country – they have tribes with the Pashtuns in control of half the country and a mix in all the rest.

Additionally, and most important, this announcement was a disappointment to our Afghan allies and a great morale builder for the Taliban.

Some months ago I wrote about this subject with the same title – non sequitur (a conclusion that does not logically follow from the premises).

It’s was getting worse.

The Taliban are encouraged by the failure of American on-again-off military leadership, civilian leadership is even worse, and military operations are not working as planned.

Is all lost – I think not.

With Gen Mattis at CENTCOM and Gen Petraeus in Afghanistan we have the right military team in the right place.

Now all we need is a new ambassador in Afghanistan and get rid of Richard Charles Allen Holbrooke.

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Many in the U.S. government are beginning to acknowledge the difficulty they could face if they try to follow through on the President’s pledge to begin withdrawing troops in July 2011, without a successful end game. But few expect the Afghan security forces to be ready by July 2011.

There is no doubt that there will be pressure from Gen. David H. Petraeus not to abandon all the sacrifice and treasury that has been spent in Afghanistan.

It is hard to understand what is driving Vice President Joe Biden’s drive to pull out of Afghanistan.

Afghanistan has proven to be more difficult than expected and a new debate over the administration’s war strategy cannot be very productive to the new commander nor the troops in the field.

However, the Rules of Engagement have to change. Air and heavy weapons support has to be provided to the troops. The concept of “judicious restraint” has to go.

There is still the AfghanPak question.

The major enemy forces and particularly the Taliban and Al Qaeda leadership are undoubtedly in Pakistan.

The campaign has to be taken to the enemy.

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The “New York Times” is reporting that farmers from the district of Marja, which since February has been the focus of the largest American-led military operation in Afghanistan, are fleeing the area, “saying that the Taliban are terrorizing the population and that American troops cannot protect the civilians.”

Additionally, the Taliban area already killing all in the Kandahar area who might work with the allies.

This can fit the category of “unintended consequences” or fallout of premature announcement of war plans.

I thought it was stupid when the “coalition”” – read U.S. command – announced far in advance their war plans.

New York Times, May 17, 2010, “Taliban Hold Sway In Area Taken By U.S., Farmers Say,” by Carlotta Gall, reports: “The departure of the farmers is one of the most telling indications that Taliban fighters have found a way to resume their insurgency three months after thousands of troops invaded this Taliban stronghold (Marja) in the opening foray of a campaign to take control of southern Afghanistan. Militants have been infiltrating back into the area and the prospect of months of more fighting is undermining public morale, residents and officials said.”

It doesn’t take a military genius to have predicted that this would happen.

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NEWSWEEK, known for its political correctness and left of center philosophy, is not a publication that I would normally buy. However, my wife saw it in the market with a picture of a soldier on the front and a title of “War Stories,” and she thought I might enjoy reading it. I read it but I did not like it.

The first article was called “War and Remembrance” and it wasn’t that bad. It had a few good thoughts like: “Americans are not very good at remembering. Our endless capacity to focus on the future rather than the past is one of our greatest national virtues – and one of our great national vices.”

The next one was a typical bleeding heart liberal view about war called “Combat High.” Here the author tried to identify how ground combat soldiers and Marines get off on killing the enemy. His remarks were not only stupid but also insulting: “Combat was a game that the United States had asked Second Platoon…” Then there was: “As for a sense of purpose, combat is it – the only game in town.” His whole article was what he thought was the essence of men in combat – a drug like high.

I kept reading to see just how far the idiots of this magazine and its publishers would go to denigrate our U.S. fighting men and women. It got worse.

The article that won first prize for inaccuracy and hyperbole was by Steve Kroft from the TV show “60 Minutes” – another source well known for slanting stories to fit their philosophy. Kroft was said to have served in the “U.S. Army in Vietnam as a correspondent and photographer for ‘Stars and Stripes’” – an unofficial military news paper but with plenty of censorship.

Here is his take on majors and lieutenant colonels: “…obsessed with body counts and regulation haircuts care more about their next promotion than the welfare of their troops.”

One of the major inaccuracies was what Kroft wrote on a character from a book was said to be a Marine officer fresh from “Ivy League and Officer Training School.” Marines do not have Officer Training School. It’s called Officer Candidate School.

Ralph Peters, noted author and columnist, once wrote to me: “History is no longer about facts.  It’s about re-interpreting events (or ignoring them) to make a pre-determined ideological point.”

Boy did Ralph get that right.

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According to the Wall Street Journal, Afghanistan President Karzai, for the second time in three days, accused the U.S. of interfering in Afghan affairs and saying the Taliban insurgency would become a legitimate resistance movement if the meddling doesn’t stop.

Nearly 100,000 American troops are currently fighting a war against the Taliban and this is not to mention the billions of treasure the U.S. have provided the Afghan government. Karzai made the comments during a private meeting with about 60 or 70 Afghan lawmakers last Saturday.

It was evident to all observers that Karzai and his government took control a badly rigged election. Corruption is rampant and there seems to be no real attempt to remove the culprits

So, now we have an illegitimate president who is biting the hand that feeds him.

You have to ask the question is it worth all the trouble.

Unfortunately, the answer is we have very little choice.

The current troubles in Afghanistan are our own making. We gave the fight against the Taliban half measures and now we’re playing catch up to an expanding insurrection. We pushed Karzai forward as our chosen one. We were long in recognizing that the local tribal leaders were the real power centers in the rural areas. We still have no viable alternative against the poppy growing economy.

Announcing far in advance that we are sending a large task force to root out the Taliban in Kandahar makes no sense to many.

It’s funny that the insurrection is against Karzai and I doubt very seriously if he could live very long if the Taliban took control of his government.

Afghanistan is in our vital national security interest and any lessening of our support would have long range ramifications against the U.S. A radical Islamic state adjacent to Iran would be the beginning of the Caliphate that the Islamic radicals have long fought for. Al Qaeda would once again have a safe haven to train and dispatch jihad.

Maybe the announcement that we are leaving in 2012 is beginning to make Karzai and his government think they have to make accommodations with the Taliban or take as much loot as possible and prepare for the 2012 withdrawal of U.S. support.

We’re stuck in a bad situation and we have no one to blame but ourselves.

.

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Michael Evans, Defence (sic) Editor, London Times, January 4, 2010, had an article on Major-General Andrew Mackay saying the U.K. Ministry of Defence is institutionally incapable  in Afghanistan. Major-General Mackay, who commanded 52 Infantry Brigade in Helmand, Afghanistan, when he was a brigadier, resigned in September after voicing personal doubts about the way the Afghan campaign was being run.

In a paper published by the MoD’s Defence Academy at Shrivenham, in Oxfordshire, General Mackay’s article, written jointly with Steve Tatham, a senior commander in the Royal Navy, says that messages from London often had no relevance at ground level to troops engaged in contact with the Taliban. They said the MoD had consistently failed to understand the motivations of the local Afghans.

Mackay and Tatham call for a new strategy which focuses less on winning battles against the Taliban and more on understanding their culture, economy and psychology.

This may be said about the U.S. Department of Defense and parts of our military in failing to learn the lessons from Vietnam. El Salvador, Iraq, etc.

Is the U.S. military institutionally incapable of keeping pace with the Taliban rapid changes and the associated willingness to adapt and quickly – at the same time? Do our institutions of democracy for the political paradigm and the U.S. military combined arms, massive fire power paradigm, have a place in Afghanistan?

It can be said that many in the Administration and the U.S. news media consistently fail to understand that what seems to be irrational behavior, by the Afghans, is entirely rational to the Afghans.  The U.S. idea to offer democracy to Afghans is largely irrelevant to many local Afghan communities as they struggle through their traditional daily lives.

Hopefully the 30,000 “surge” will bring new thinking about engaging the Afghans at their local level with understanding as to what is relevant to them and not what is brought with the U.S. home grown institutions, intuitions and prejudices.

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Pakistan, who was the Taliban original sponsor, now hopes to play a role as a broker in proposed negotiations among Taliban leaders and the Afghan government, reportedly with support from the Administration.

Many reports have revealed that the Pakistan intelligence service (ISI) still has been supporting the Taliban. Additionally, the Pakistan governement will not move strongly against the Taliban havens in Pakistan.

Will this be a case of letting the fox in the hen house?

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