1. Today Al Qaeda is at a low point administratively and organizationally. There is a growing struggle for leadership developing. Ayman al Zawahiri is not the inspirational Emir that Osama bin Laden was. Everyone in the terrorism field agrees that Zawahiri is abrasive and is not liked by many in AQ. According to government intelligence (current and former) AQ is at a membership slow down as well.

2. Now Iran is once again being considered for an AQ safe haven in that part of South Asia. Zawahiri and surviving AQ middle management have strong ties to Iran. Also, in the past year and a half, 20 of Al Qaeda’s top 30 leaders identified by American intelligence have been killed. Pakistan is no longer as safe as it was for AQ leaders.

3. At the operational level, AQ is still a deadly threat and intelligence intercepts suggesting WMD of the deadly toxin types are resurfacing. This is the type of weapon that is easily transported and delivered to a targeted nation. I would say that AQ is as deadly as it has always been, but less than capable to carry out another 9/11 operation, at least in the USA.

4. AQ is no longer a single movement led from the top by bin Laden or anyone else. It now comprises affiliates that spread from the Philippines to the Sahel. Somalia and most recently Nigeria – the Boko Harum group - have established a relationship within this Jihadi terrorism “franchise.” Formal affiliation with AQ helps to bring in funding from wealthy Jihadi sympathizers or “tribute payers” (for insurance against attacks!) in the Gulf States, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, to name but a few locations.

5. Muslim youth today that are influenced by AQ and its call for Jihad make up a small percentage, so far, of the Muslim populations, particularly those located in the EU and the USA. However, that number could spread if propagandizing via some overwhelmingly successful attack were to occur against the “infidel” anywhere in the Western World

6. I see more of a Muslim Brotherhood influence in the current “Arab Spring” uprisings. Not so much at this time of AQ. However, it is very possible due to the disarray and violence in Egypt, Syria and Libya that AQ supporters may slip into leading roles using the Muslim Brotherhood as cover. Neither group is good for the Western World. It was the MB that created the belief system that AQ was founded upon. Zawahiri is a former MB member.

7. Key elements of AQ I believe have shifted to Yemen, Somalia and the Maghreb. Yemen  in particular will become the key area or jumping off spot internationally for future AQ activities. Next to watch is the Salafi movement (AQIM) in Algeria, Morrocco and the Sahel. They will be focusing on the EU, while Al Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula (AQAP), located in Yemen, will focus on U.S. targets worldwide. In particular the American homeland, according to many US experts.   

8. Perhaps AQ’s most lasting legacy will be the decentralization that mushroomed under its guidance by spreading terrorist affiliates around the world. This includes not only full-fledged organizations, but “lone wolves” as well.

9. Predictions: Look for closer ties with Iran and Hizb-Allah by AQ affiliates. A spreading of Al Qaeda encouraged violence across Nigeria and the Sahel. Eventually a major Jihadi attack against the West. Or several smaller ones in nature but not violence against one specific nation after another.

10. The one thing Al Qaeda and its affiliates cannot do is remain passive for any length of time. They then become perceived as irrelevant to “the cause.” Then the funding, Jihad volunteers and other sources of support dry up!

By: Lawrence Martines (Well known AT/CT Expert with 35 years experience and many publications.)

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Administration officials are trying to convince the public that killing of Osama bin Laden and the toll of seven years of CIA drone strikes have pushed Al Qaeda to the brink of collapse. The new Director of the CIA, Leon Panetta, and the top U.S. national security officials now suggest a potential finish line in the fight against Al Qaeda, since bin Laden was killed by U.S. forces in the raid in Pakistan.

However, the recently departed director of the national counterterrorism center said last Thursday that Al Qaeda in Pakistan still posed a serious threat to the United States, and he warned that the comments by the Administration were, well, off base.,

Michael E. Leiter, who resigned three weeks ago as head of the National Counterterrorism Center, is the most significant opposition to a growing number of statements that the death of Osama bin Laden and years of Central Intelligence Agency drone strikes in Pakistan have brought the United States within reach of defeating Al Qaeda.

This is wishful thing if not political posturing for the next presidential election when they fail to mention the franchises of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula in Yemen, Al Qaeda in Somalia and Al Qaeda in Iran.

Mr. Leiter also raised concerns that a decade of intensive paramilitaryoperations by the Central Intelligence Agency in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen had begun to change the nature of the spy service, and not
necessarily all for the better. He spoke in an interview at the Aspen Security Forum at the Aspen Institute. The New York Times is a sponsor of the conference, and Mr. Leiter was interviewed by David E. Sanger, The Times¹s chief Washington correspondent.

The only way of ending the threat that Al Qaeda and all of its affiliates pose to the United States and its interests around the world is to kill all the leaders, remove all safe havens and confiscate all bank accounts.

That is not going to happen any time soon.

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A friend sent me the opening below.

“AQ is no longer an organization, Instead it is a “Movement.” Like you pointed out, anyone who wishes can use the term AQ. It now means those who want to return the Caliphate on a world-wide scale!”

Funny how Mr. Kaddafi (aka Qaddafi) wants to blame Al Qaeda for his troubles in Libya.

It seems that even the embattled Arab states will use Al Qaeda as a boogie man. This approach may even find traction in certain segments of the U.S. government who now have to search how much from Kaddafi is bluster and how much is fact.

It has been reported that Kaddafi had allowed the Iranian Revolutionary Guards to establish training camps along Libyan’s southern borders with Islamic states of Niger, Chad, and Sudan. Allegedly, the Libyans have already withdrawn their Cadre and buried the evidence.

At one time Kaddafi had training camps for many of the world’s terrorists groups: Irish Republican Army, Sandinista, Black September, Palestinian Liberation Organization, etc.

We have not seen the end of Al Qaeda as a movement but the old leadership providing money, training, advice & assistance, etc., is gone or in deep cover.

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One opinion:

“Despite nearly a decade of war, al Qaeda is stronger today than when it carried out the 9/11 attacks since fleeing Afghanistan to Pakistan’s tribal areas in late 2001, al Qaeda has founded a regional branch in the Arabian Peninsula and acquired franchises in Iraq and the Maghreb. Today, it has more members, greater geographic reach, and a level of ideological sophistication and influence it lacked ten years ago.”

Another opinion:

“Despite Qaddafi’s claim that al Qaida is behind the protests in Libya, the jihadi organization has had little to do with the revolutions spreading throughout the Arab world, and they don’t like being excluded from the
spotlight. In fact, Der Spiegelopines, the unrest has put al-Qaida in a tricky position: while they’ve called for the overthrow of secular leaders, many of the revolutions-like the one in Egypt-occurred “because the regime
was only outwardly democratic,” not because it was too democratic. So al-Qaida leaders are scrambling to put the right spin on things.”

So, who’s right?

Al Qaeda wantabes who have taken the name Al Qaeda are not the same as the original Osama bin Laden organization. Anyone can start a new terrorist organization and call themselves Al Qaeda of Brooklyn or anything else.

TV news and print media pundits have no idea if bin laden is alive or dead but they continue to give him and his organization copy only because his name evokes concern around the halls of Washington D.C., and sells copy.

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Amazingly, the information on the New York Times Square would-be bomber keeps changing.

Saying they have obtained new evidence, senior White House officials said the Pakistani Taliban were behind the failed Times Square bombing. It marks the first time the group has been able to launch an attack on U.S. soil, indicating growing strength by groups linked to Al Qaeda even if the CIA says their operations are seriously degraded.

To say that the attempt to set off a bomb in NYC was amateurish and a poor bomb just because it did not explode is a big mistake. Maybe it was a rehearsal to see what our reactions would be. Maybe the Taliban planners did not want the culprit to survive and he knew it so it fixed it so the entire car bomb would not explode. He certainly was awaiting the FBI or NYPD to take him off the airplane before his escape. Maybe he feels safer in jail than having to return to Pakistan where he would probably be killed.

Al Qaeda and its affiliates are not stupid. They are learning and adaptive organizations

The reality is that we have to stay vigilant and we must continue to get systems, processes and procedures that can identify these individuals, ideally of course before they can carry out an attack and then indeed to react quickly if something is attempted before it’s too late.

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There are two ways to lose the war in Afghanistan and the Global War on Terrorism.

One is for the U.S. news media to keep spreading the Al Qaeda propaganda. It is hilarious that the five U.S. citizens captured in Pakistan are getting press accusing the FBI of torture during interrogations. The FBI is probably barely able to question the terrorists because of strict Pakistan limitations.

The Al Qaeda Manual clearly states that captured terrorist must claim they were tortured.

The Manual was found by British police at an address they were turning over in Manchester in 2002 – found on a suspect’s laptop.

Here is a quote from the Manual for prisoners:

“1. At the beginning of the trial, once more the brothers must insist on proving that torture was inflicted on them by State Security [investigators] before the judge.

2. Complain [to the court] of mistreatment while in prison.”

The Taliban and drug gangs have invested a lot in the local media to make all allied accidents a major story.

The second way to lose the war is the overly restrictive Rules of Engagement (ROE).

But, that is another story.

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The Al Qaeda network today is comprised of affiliated groups, franchises and semi-autonomous or self radicalized individuals, who want to carry out attacks against U.S. targets. The core Al Qaeda leadership is thought to be spread around Pakistan.

Al Qaeda now seems to have less centralized command and control, and no clear center of gravity. Al Qaeda franchises or affiliated groups active in countries such as Pakistan, Yemen (Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula) and Somalia now represent critical power centers in the larger movement. Some affiliates receive guidance, money, training, and weapons.

Al Qaeda in Iraq was one of Al Qaeda’s most powerful and successful affiliates outside Pakistan. In late 2006, however, Sunni tribes in Iraq turned against Al Qaeda in Iraq and helped the U.S. military reduce substantially their activities and influence.

Here are the major Al Qaeda affiliates:

• Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
• Al Qaeda in Iraq
• Taliban in Afghanistan
• Taliban in Pakistan
• Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) in Pakistan
• Jemaah Islamiyain in SE Asia and mostly Indonesia
• Abu Syyaf in the Philippines

There are other Arabic/Palestinian terrorist groups like HizbAllah, al Fatah, Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood who have attacked American targets but most attacks are directed at Israelis.

The most dangerous and most violent is thought to be the Chechen “Wolves.” Remember the Beslan Public School and the Moscow Theater in Russia? Osama bin Laden was known to have 300 Chechens in his 055 Brigade which was smashed in the U.S and U.K. invasion in 2001/02.

Anyone who thinks there is no Global War on Terrorism is not getting out very much.

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US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates visiting New Deli, India, has describe what Al Qaeda and allied movements, or AQAM to some, is all about, according to the WASHINGTON POST.

Again according to the POST, after two days of meetings with Indian officials, Gates was reported to have said that Al Qaeda has formed a “syndicate” of terrorist groups with Taliban factions in Afghanistan and Pakistan, as well as Lashkar-i-Taiba, the Kashmir terrorist blamed for the 2008 Mumbai attacks that killed 165 people.

He went on to say: “It’s dangerous to single out any  one of these groups and say if we could beat that group that will  solve the problem. Because they are, in effect, a syndicate of terrorist operators.”

Many asked why we cannot infiltrate any of these groups.

Imagine living in the mountain hideout of an AQAM terrorist group, you have to live in squalor, no baths, no toilets, little food, and no normal comforts of a decent living.

Who would volunteer for this?

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There is little doubt that the passengers on September 9, 2001, United Airlines Flight 93 became aware that their hijacked airplane was likely to be used as a terrorist’s weapon. The cell phone calls were evidence of the passenger’s knowledge of the hijacker’s intentions and the subsequent attempt to overthrow the hijackers caused the terrorist to crash the plane.

Shortly after 9/11, on December 22, 2001, we had Richard Reid’s attempt to blow up American Airlines Flt 63 with explosive materials embedded in his shoe.  Apparently the explosive did not work due to the one day delay of his flight. It has been reported that Reid’s shoes and socks had to be worn for an extra day and his perspiration caused the fuse to be too damp to ignite properly. Again, passengers and crew subdued the terrorist.

One has to wonder if the passengers’ response to the attempted UA Flt 93 hijacking and the attempted bombing of AA Flt 63 may have caused many in the government and the airline industry to think that we have seen the last of terrorist attempts to destroy aircraft in flight with assured passenger intervention.

Yet, we now have Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab’s attempt with a different explosive device and that was again thwarted by faulty explosives and passenger and crew actions.

The information available on Abdulmutallab, by our Intelligence agencies and the news media, has provided little more than personal background history, his reported relationships with Al Qaeda, and his training and equipping in Yemen. 

No one can believe that the U.S. military action in Afghanistan and Pakistan, relative to Al Qaeda, has anywhere near destroyed the terrorism threat to America.

We seem to have little reliable information on Al Qaeda capabilities and intentions that provide insights on their strategies.

Unfortunately, any continuing focus on the commercial airline industry can distort our understanding of terrorist capabilities and intentions and misdirect our focus on improved security measures.

Since 9/11 little has been accomplished externally to kill or capture the Al Qaeda top leadership and internally to improve the failures of imagination by the government and industry to meet the terrorist threat.

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