While the U.S. has a myopic focused on Afghanistan the Administration may have lost its capability to work with Pakistan.

Pakistan is still fuming with internal strife after the earthquake and the floods that have weakened the Pakistan government rule in most of the country. There is no rule in the Northwest Territories, Pak Taliban control much of the border with Afghanistan, terrorist groups like the LeT (terrorist who attacked Mumbai) are supported by the Pak Army Inter-Service Intelligence – ISI -agency (their CIA, FBI and DHS all rolled into one)  and Baluchistan is ripe for a major insurgency.

The drone UAV strikes into Pakistan have been a source of tension for some time. While many UAV attacks have most likely killed many Taliban and Al Qaeda fighters, the death of Pakistani civilians has acerbated the problems

NATO Supply trucks are still stuck in Pakistan

The explanation for the incident where NATO killed 24 Pakistani soldiers has never been accepted.

Pustans are part of the ethnic group in Afghan and Pakistan.

The attack on the Osama bin Laden compound was a serious bl;ow to Pakistan prestige.

This is not to ignore the ever present cold war with India and both are nuclear armed states. On top of all this is the tension between the Pakistani civilian government and the military leadership.

Why the Pakistan alliance with the Taliban?

Pakistan needs a friendly state to its their west to provide maneuver room in the event of war with India. Without resorting to nuclear weapons the much larger Indian army may over run much of Pakistan and the Pakistani army would need to retreat west to survive.

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The latest  www.stratfor.com has an interesting piece, “Pakistan’s Deadly Struggles With Politics and Religion,”
January 5, 2011 | 0321 GMT: The governor of Pakistan’s largest province of Punjab, Salman Taseer, was assassinated Tuesday by a member of his own security detail. Given that the country is the world’s largest hub of disparate types of Islamist militant actors – a large number of whom are waging war against the Pakistani state – events like these are to be expected. But this particular assassination offers key insight into the deep-rooted problems plaguing Pakistan and the wider Islamic world.

Counter-terrorism and counterinsurgency measures are perceived in Pakistan as a Western-led war against the faithful who are resisting a campaign to tamper with their religion.

For a member of a security entity designed to fight terrorism and protect state figures to blatantly kill the official he is supposed to protect speaks volumes about how Pakistan is increasingly becoming polarized over religion in public affairs.

What this means, according to stratfor.com, is that the only way for Pakistanis to effectively combat extremism and terrorism is for Muslim scholars to create an alternative religious thought that is perceived as authentic and legitimate by a critical mass of the public to be rooted in Islamic religious text and the original teachings of the Prophet Mohammad. Such efforts are important not just in Pakistan, but in most of the Muslim world, though in the case of Pakistan, the situation is even dire given the extent to which the state has weakened.

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Former Ambassador to Pakistan, Anne Patterson warns that the U.S. stands little chance of convincing Pakistan to sever links with militants fighting in Afghanistan using current strategy, This info came in the form of one of dozens of memos exoosed by WikiLeaks on America’s troubled alliance with the nuclear-armed state.

The diplomatic cables released also reveal U.S. concern that Islamist militants might get access to Pakistan’s nuclear material and doubts over the ability of the country’s weak government.

Patterson’s comments about trying to get Pakistan to abandon the Afghan Taliban may be the most significantof the leaks since U.S. officials have said ending support for the Taliban, which has bases on Pakistan’s territory close to Afghanistan, is key to success in Afghanistan.

Instead of lavishing the country with increased foreign and military aid to win Pakistan’s cooperation, the U.S. must focus on ways of reducing tension between Islamabad and its archenemy, India.

“There is no chance that Pakistan will view enhanced assistance levels in any field as sufficient compensation for abandoning support to these groups, which it sees as an important part of its national security apparatus against India,” said Patterson in a September 2009 memo.

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The government of Pakistan is reporting that the flood damage to property, crops and livestock may be over $43 billion. It is reported that  the UN World Food Programme expects to feed 6 million Pakistanis for the next six months. The World Health Organization is reporting that there may be 6 million cases of diarrhea.

No government any where could cope with such a calamity and Pakistan is fraught with major problems.

There is the conflict in Afghanistan that now plays out in the border area of Pakistan. There is the Jammu & Kashmir crisis that has seen over 150 dead in the last few weeks of rioting. There is the restless Baluchistanis who want independence. The British magazine “The Economist” reports that in the last 10 years, nearly 31,000 people have been killed in jihadist-related violence. Additionally, the border area with India ties up thousands of troops. Last but not least there is a very incapable government to handle any of these problems.  And, this is a nuclear armed Islamic nation which allowed a scientist to export nuclear bomb technology

Neither the government nor the generals, who control all security forces, seem especially concerned by all this.

The country is divided by sect and ethnicity, and since the British granted independence and the establishment of a constitution in 1956, they have seen nothing but war, disaster and jihadist insurrection.

Is there any relief in sight or are we watching the disintegration of a democratic nation into an Islamic theocracy like Iran?

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Many military intelligence agencies and think tanks are beginning to believe that there is a serious danger of Pakistan disintegrating into fiefdoms controlled by warlords and Pakistan Taliban. A Pakistan crash into warlord-run fiefdoms that would host Al Qaeda and the Pak Taliban strongholds, would have grave consequences for the security of the Pak nuclear stockpiles.

Pakistan has over 173,000,000 million people and around 100 nuclear weapons. Add to this that they have a large army but riddled with Islamic extremist and as much as two thirds of the country the government cannot control.

The devastating floods are reported to have disrupted the lives of 14 million people. Many are without water, food and shelter. One estimate says that many are living in the open.

Going by numbers the news media is reporting that this disaster is worse than the Indian Ocean tsunami and the Haiti earthquake combined. There is no accurate count of the dead and missing. Unfortunately, international aid is coming slower than usual.

The U.S. has responded with at least $70 million and Great Britain is second with $32 million. Additionally, the U.S. has sent helicopters which are dropping food and water and evacuating those in need. There are reports that the Pak Taliban controlled areas are providing better assistance than the Pak government.

Pakistan is suffering from a number of natural and man-made disasters over the last five years. Add to this the Islamic insurgency against the government, the Afghanistan Taliban and bad economic mismanagement and you have a recipe for a larger disaster – nuclear weapons in the hands of extremist.

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The Washington Post Foreign Service reported on 25 Feb 2010, that Pakistan will hand over the Taliban No. 2.

The Afghan government was the first to announce that Pakistani authorities had agreed to hand over several suspected insurgents whom 
Pakistan has taken into custody, including the Taliban’s No. 2  leader.

Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, a member of the Taliban’s leadership council, and other prisoners are “accused of criminal acts” in 
Afghanistan and will be extradited, according to a statement from the  office of Afghan President Hamid Karzai.

Why does this “news” make me scratch my head?

Reports of the Pakistani Intelligence Service (ISI) working with the CIA and rolling up Taliban leadership makes me wonder if the people being captured are truly hard core Taliban leaders or do we have a cleansing operation to rid Pakistan of uncooperative Taliban.

The ISI created the Taliban.  

A Taliban controlled government in Afghanistan could be of immense value to Pakistan in any confrontation with India. Additionally, there is a  Pakistan Taliban.

One of the reasons the Phoenix program failed in Vietnam was because the Vietnamese government used the program to eliminate political opponents.

Something smells fishy here

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Pakistan, who was the Taliban original sponsor, now hopes to play a role as a broker in proposed negotiations among Taliban leaders and the Afghan government, reportedly with support from the Administration.

Many reports have revealed that the Pakistan intelligence service (ISI) still has been supporting the Taliban. Additionally, the Pakistan governement will not move strongly against the Taliban havens in Pakistan.

Will this be a case of letting the fox in the hen house?

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