Most journalists do not understand how the Taliban come mainly from the Pushtu.

The Pushtu populations is primarily in central and eastern Afghanistan and northwestern Pakistan, which includes Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Balochistan. The Pashtuns are typically characterized by their usage of the Pashto language and practice of Pashtunwali, a traditional set of Islamic ethics guiding individual and communal conduct.

According to Wikipedia, the Pashtuns are the world’s largest (patriarchal) lineage ethnic group. According to Ethnologue, the total population of the group is estimated to be around 50 million but an accurate count remains elusive due to the lack of an official census in Afghanistan since 1979. Estimates of the number of Pushtu tribes and clans range to about 350.

The Taliban have been mostly Pashtun since the fight against Soviet occupation and now fight the U.S. occupation.

The frayed alliance between Pakistan and the U.S. hurts U.S. plans to draw down troops in Afghanistan and leave behind a stable country. WDC needs better cooperation from Pakistan in shutting down Taliban havens on both sides of the border, which fuel the conflict. Without Pakistan’s cooperation, a U.S. troop withdrawal could lead Afghanistan into a renewed civil war.

Unfortunately, the Pakistani military and ISI see the situation very differently. Mostly they attribute their militant problem to U.S. errors in Afghanistan. They are unwilling to shut down havens for the Afghan or Pakistan Taliban (whom they trained in the 1990s to fight the Soviets) because they want a friendly, and anti-Indian, regime to take over in Kabul after the U.S. exit. They believe the Taliban may provide their best option.

Until the Pashtuns are ready to accept a divided allegiance to Afghans and Pakistan– there will be no peace in Afghanistan.

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Amazingly, the information on the New York Times Square would-be bomber keeps changing.

Saying they have obtained new evidence, senior White House officials said the Pakistani Taliban were behind the failed Times Square bombing. It marks the first time the group has been able to launch an attack on U.S. soil, indicating growing strength by groups linked to Al Qaeda even if the CIA says their operations are seriously degraded.

To say that the attempt to set off a bomb in NYC was amateurish and a poor bomb just because it did not explode is a big mistake. Maybe it was a rehearsal to see what our reactions would be. Maybe the Taliban planners did not want the culprit to survive and he knew it so it fixed it so the entire car bomb would not explode. He certainly was awaiting the FBI or NYPD to take him off the airplane before his escape. Maybe he feels safer in jail than having to return to Pakistan where he would probably be killed.

Al Qaeda and its affiliates are not stupid. They are learning and adaptive organizations

The reality is that we have to stay vigilant and we must continue to get systems, processes and procedures that can identify these individuals, ideally of course before they can carry out an attack and then indeed to react quickly if something is attempted before it’s too late.

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The “New York Times” reported last week that NATO hopes to conclude a formal agreement with the Afghan Government in July, which would transfer authority to Afghans when they have met three criteria: a competent local police force, a durable civilian government and signs of reconciliation with the Taliban insurgency.

Reconciliation with the Taliban is about as non sequitur as it can get.

To think the Taliban would give up their radical Islamic form of life is nonsense.

Interesting to note that one thing missing from the “criteria” was a strong and viable military.

Looking more and more like the U.S. governments is already planning a bug out and leaving the Afghans with a new civil war.

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Have to quote parts of the text of the AP report to see the full story::

 “Taliban moves onto abandoned U.S. base”

“By Elizabeth A. Kennedy – The Associated Press
Posted : Wednesday Apr 21, 2010 12:44:02 EDT

“KABUL — Taliban fighters swarmed over a mountaintop base abandoned last week by the U.S.military following some of the toughest fighting of the Afghan war, according to footage aired Monday by a major satellite television station.

“The video by Al-Jazeera is a morale booster for Taliban fighters, though the U.S. insists the decision to withdraw from the base in the Korengal Valley was sound and the area has no strategic value.

“The pullout last week of the remaining 120 U.S. soldiers from the Korengal was part of a strategy announced last year by the top U.S. and NATO commander, Gen. Stanley McChrystal, to abandon small, difficult-to-defend bases in remote, sparsely populated areas and concentrate forces around major population centers.”

Isn’t this what happened in Vietnam with the Westmorland doctrine?

We left the countryside to the VC/NVA and built Roman style Legionnaire cantonments to keep out the barbarians.

Stratfor.com postulates that the exit from Korengal probably reflects increasing cooperation between Washington and Islamabad with some degree of confidence in Pakistani gains in tribal areas across the Afghan border.

Only plausibel explanation?

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According to the Wall Street Journal, Afghanistan President Karzai, for the second time in three days, accused the U.S. of interfering in Afghan affairs and saying the Taliban insurgency would become a legitimate resistance movement if the meddling doesn’t stop.

Nearly 100,000 American troops are currently fighting a war against the Taliban and this is not to mention the billions of treasure the U.S. have provided the Afghan government. Karzai made the comments during a private meeting with about 60 or 70 Afghan lawmakers last Saturday.

It was evident to all observers that Karzai and his government took control a badly rigged election. Corruption is rampant and there seems to be no real attempt to remove the culprits

So, now we have an illegitimate president who is biting the hand that feeds him.

You have to ask the question is it worth all the trouble.

Unfortunately, the answer is we have very little choice.

The current troubles in Afghanistan are our own making. We gave the fight against the Taliban half measures and now we’re playing catch up to an expanding insurrection. We pushed Karzai forward as our chosen one. We were long in recognizing that the local tribal leaders were the real power centers in the rural areas. We still have no viable alternative against the poppy growing economy.

Announcing far in advance that we are sending a large task force to root out the Taliban in Kandahar makes no sense to many.

It’s funny that the insurrection is against Karzai and I doubt very seriously if he could live very long if the Taliban took control of his government.

Afghanistan is in our vital national security interest and any lessening of our support would have long range ramifications against the U.S. A radical Islamic state adjacent to Iran would be the beginning of the Caliphate that the Islamic radicals have long fought for. Al Qaeda would once again have a safe haven to train and dispatch jihad.

Maybe the announcement that we are leaving in 2012 is beginning to make Karzai and his government think they have to make accommodations with the Taliban or take as much loot as possible and prepare for the 2012 withdrawal of U.S. support.

We’re stuck in a bad situation and we have no one to blame but ourselves.

.

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NEWS FLASH: The U.S. military will begin a lengthy offensive in Kandahar in June.

U.S. news reports of enemy activities have proven to be very accurate of late.

All Taliban and allied foreign troops will be out of Kandahar by 29 May.

Volunteer suicide bombers and stay behind fighters will report to your local commander. Volunteers are welcome.

Look for older Lee-Enfiled .303 rifles.

The Brits and the Americans are trying to buy old M-14s or some have even bought M-1 Gerands for long range battle.

The U.S. M-16 and the Brit L-85 are useless weapons and cause only superficial wounds at 1000 meters.

Keep up the great work, and remember we have only a little more than a year before the U.S. will withdraw.

Life is great.

Mullah Mr. Smead

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A number of news media, both print and TV, are proclaiming that the “Taliban are transitioning and growing in sophistication.”

This statement shows a total lack of historical perspective.

The Taliban are using tactics that Islamic armies have used for almost a millennium. Starting back at Manzikert, 1071, Saladin at Hattin, 1187, and the Crusader wars, one can see that little has changed in Islamic campaigning.

The main lessons of Islamic military campaigns are ones of flexibility, adaptability, surprise, ambush, feint-withdrawal-envelope, and deception.

IEDs, Improvised Explosive Devices, are the only Islamic tactical innovation now being used in Afghan and Iraq.

To paraphrase Ralph Peters from his new book ENDLESS WARS: The Muslim world cannot field great armies as it once did, nor do they present an existential danger to the West. Quoting Peters: “Yet, the deadly annoyances of the present are indisputably an extension of competition that began in the seventh century.”

I am working on a book review for ENDLESS WAR which is destined to be a classic.

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 As STRATFOR pointed out at the time, the Taliban were never defeated by the U.S. invasion in 2001/02, they largely declined combat in the face of overwhelmingly superior military force. They simply moved out of the way of U.S. and NATO forces and adopted classic guerrilla tactics which they had been using over the last several decades.

Yes, decades.

Count the Soviet invasion in 1979 and the civil war which followed and now almost 10 years fighting the Americans.

So, do we have 10 years of experience in fighting the Taliban or do we have 10 one year’s experiences. Maybe even only 20 six months of experiences.

The Taliban are a diverse, dispersed insurgent force with multiple command centers and locally autonomous leaders. The Afghan Taliban leadership group, known as the Quetta Shura, has exercised significant authority in recent years over Taliban fighters in southern Afghanistan.

The current fighting in southern Afghanistan with the Marines is another example of the Taliban avoiding major head on battles. They continue to slip away with a well rehearsed rear guard.

As a friend of mine said a lot of us have the picture of the Taliban as backward, 7th century, uneducated, resourceful, sophisticated, committed, creative, funny dressing, religious fanatics…

 That may be but given the Afghanistan resilience, the cross border sanctuary and the U.S. declared withdrawal date in 2012, all they have to do is wait.

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The Washington Post Foreign Service reported on 25 Feb 2010, that Pakistan will hand over the Taliban No. 2.

The Afghan government was the first to announce that Pakistani authorities had agreed to hand over several suspected insurgents whom 
Pakistan has taken into custody, including the Taliban’s No. 2  leader.

Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, a member of the Taliban’s leadership council, and other prisoners are “accused of criminal acts” in 
Afghanistan and will be extradited, according to a statement from the  office of Afghan President Hamid Karzai.

Why does this “news” make me scratch my head?

Reports of the Pakistani Intelligence Service (ISI) working with the CIA and rolling up Taliban leadership makes me wonder if the people being captured are truly hard core Taliban leaders or do we have a cleansing operation to rid Pakistan of uncooperative Taliban.

The ISI created the Taliban.  

A Taliban controlled government in Afghanistan could be of immense value to Pakistan in any confrontation with India. Additionally, there is a  Pakistan Taliban.

One of the reasons the Phoenix program failed in Vietnam was because the Vietnamese government used the program to eliminate political opponents.

Something smells fishy here

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A quote from the Financial Times, London, UK, 27 January 2010, says that Afghanistan’s finance minister has raised the prospect of involving the Taliban across all levels of government, at both a district and central government level, as part of a broader plan for their reintegration and brokering peace.

A U.S. Administration official is reported to have said people agree that part of the solution for Afghanistan is going to include an accommodation with the Taliban, even above low- and middle-level fighters.

There are allegedly some high level Taliban who want to talk peace.

However, I’m reminded of the old North Vietnamese and Viet Cong policy of “talk-talk – fight-fight.”

This means that you keeping the idiot peaceniks at all cost talking peace while you keep fighting.

Al Qaeda and Taliban are not as stupid as many in the U.S. think they are. They have a long range goal of an Islamic caliphate and nothing will cause them to deviate them from that goal.

The quickest way to lose an Afghan democratic government (such as it is) is to accept any suggestion that the Taliban quit fighting and join the Afghan government.

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