Based on my experience (Larry Martines) in dealing with violent extremists there are two basic steps one must take when dealing with terrorists groups or movements:

1. The most obvious is find them and stop them from further actions by whatever means necessary. That is a given.

2. However, the other that is equally important is disruption! This means a forced change of modus operandi. Having to quickly change things both mundane – movement, logistics, communications, passports; plus advanced/aggressive methods – financing, weapons acquisition, targeting, transportation, etc., – creates disruption, even chaos. Mistakes are made by the terrorists, perhaps things even come to a temporary stall. 

This gives the CT hunters and Intel people some time to find and fix their objectives. 

By NOT releasing the photos of bin Laden and burying him at sea without a media circus taking place creates “disruption” in the larger AQ movement. An excellent strategic move by the DOD and the CIA. Good psyops!

Amongst the AQ worldwide movement, there will always be those that think we are holding Bin Laden in some black site – the one at Diego Garcia comes to mind. Close by the carrier and convenient - and that OBL is spending a lot of quality time with skilled interrogators. Since OBL is not known to be personally  the physical hero type – he has generally considered himself the next Mahdi, although in some safe site away from the front lines – it would not be too much of a stretch or expectation by AQ members who fall into the “conspiracy” group, that OBL might be selling them out under pressure. 

Add that to the fact that we have gone public with the fact that we have captured a “treasure trove” of useful Intel on the raid, and you have achieved “Disruption” – at least temporarily. 

This does not mean that there will not be “lone wolf” revenge attacks on US citizens and sites, but maybe not a major event. This takes organization and planning, something that is on the back burner for the moment…..This gives our side the breathing space it needs to start rolling up AQ networks, starting in Yemen.

By: Larry Martines – Noted CT expert

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The following are excerpts from Security Weekly 30 Dec 2010: “Separating Terror from Terrorism” by Scott Stewart.

“Today, the proliferation of 24-hour television news networks and the Internet have allowed the media to broadcast such attacks live and in their entirety. This development allowed vast numbers of people to watch live as the World Trade Center towers collapsed on Sept. 11, 2001, and as teams of gunmen ran amok in Mumbai in November 2008.

“This exposure not only allows people to be informed about unfolding events, it also permits them to become secondary victims of the violence they have watched unfold before them. As the word indicates, the intent of “terrorism” is to create terror in a targeted audience, and the media allow that audience to become far larger than just those in the immediate vicinity of a terrorist attack. I am not a psychologist, but even I can understand that on 9/11, watching…live on television had a profound impact on many people.

“These,,, attacks have a strange hold over the human imagination and can create a unique sense of terror that dwarfs the normal reaction to natural disasters that are many times greater in magnitude.

“Groups such as al Qaeda clearly recognize the difference between terrorist attacks and terror. This is seen not only in the use of empty threats to sow terror but also in the way terrorist groups claim success for failed attacks. For example, AQAP declared the failed Christmas Day 2009 “underwear” bombing to be a success due to the effect it had on the air-transportation system. In a special edition of Inspire magazine published in November following the failed attack against cargo aircraft, AQAP trumpeted the operation as a success, citing the fear, disruption and expense that resulted. AQAP claimed the cargo bomb plot and the Christmas Day plot were part of what it called “Operation Hemorrhage,” an effort to cause economic damage and fear and not necessarily kill large numbers of people.

“If the public will take a cue from groups like AQAP, it too can separate terrorism from terror. Recognizing that terrorist attacks, like car crashes and cancer and natural disasters, are a part of the human condition permits individuals and families to practice situational awareness and take prudent measures to prepare for such contingencies without becoming vicarious victims. This separation will help deny the practitioners of terrorism and terror the ability to magnify their reach and power.”

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AP recently reported that the U.S. has been slow to take seriously the threat posed by domestic terrorist and the government has failed to put systems in place to deal with the growing phenomenon, according to a new document compiled by the former heads of the Sept. 11 Commission.

The report written by former 9/11 commission leaders Tom Kean and Lee Hamilton, laid out a detailed description of domestic terror incidents ranging from the Fort Hood, Texas, shooting and the attempted Christmas Day airliner bomber to last May’s attempted bombing in New York’s Times Square.

The report says U.S. authorities failed to realize that American youths traveling to Somalia and Yemen to join extremists are not isolated events. Instead, these activities were among several instances of a broader, more diverse threat that has surfaced in the U.S.

The report says: “Our long-held belief that homegrown terrorism couldn’t happen here has thus created a situation where we are today stumbling blindly through the legal, operational and organizational minefield of countering terrorist radicalization and recruitment occurring in the U.S. 

Unfortunately, there seems to be no federal agency specifically charged with identifying radical extremist in the U.S.

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Some months ago I wrote a piece on the November 2008, Mumbai, India, terrorist attacks where I asked is the U.S. ready to identify and defeat a Mumbai type attack.

Sadly, I think not all major cities.

At the time of Mumbai attacks many terrorist experts and news media commentators mentioned how the Indian police were disorganize and had poorly armed police, no SWAT type unit readily available, no centralized command and control, etc.

I continue to observe numerous tactical level anti/counter-terrorist exercises within many cities.

The major problem continues to be that some cities are good at the tactical level but sorely lacking at the operational level.

Let me explain.

Most major urban areas are made up of independent cities with their own police or sheriff’s departments. New Your City and the Los Angeles PD and Sheriff’s Department are exceptions. My nearest major city of Jacksonville, Florida, has the City of Jacksonville and Duval County served by the Sheriff’s Department all over the city/county. I’m told it’s the largest city per square miles in the U.S.

Small independent police of sheriff’s departments are generally good at the tactical level where they can respond to a major incident anywhere in their jurisdiction. A Station or District Commander can take charge of one incident without much difficulty.

However, it’s at the operational level where we have multiple jurisdictions where multiple attacks may occur that may not have set up working arrangements or protocols for a multi-events like the Mumbai attacks.

The operational level means preparation for multiple attacks on a large geographical area with multiple law enforcement agencies.

The Administration and Congress are focused on Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD). This would not include a “dirty bomb” unless it is a tractor trailer size detonation.

My biggest concern is multiple attacks over a large geographical area where the law enforcement agencies are weak at the operational level.

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For almost nine years now the U.S. has waged a Global War on Terrorism (GWOT). The information from the most recent terrorist, from the enraged Army major to the hapless Christmas bomber to the bungling New York City bomber, is being reported to be individual acts to terrorize the American population.

Unfortunately, there are those who believe that the Fort Hood massacre was just another horrible work place shooting and the would be bombers in New York City and on the Christmas airplane were manipulated and brainwashed to do what they did.

The question is, was all this a carefully planned terrorist act or was it a “lone wolf?”

Maybe the nature of terrorism is changing to what someone has called a “leaderless resistance.”

The individual lone wolf Islamic extremist is now less likely to come to the attention of law enforcement and intelligence agencies than four sets of terrorists hijacking airplanes on 9/11/2001 or the “Fort Dix Six.”

It might help if the government could agree on the definition or terrorist and the GWOT. It even seems that our Attorney General has great difficulty understanding any of this by his own testimony or lack thereof before Congress.

It may be that Al Qaeda no longer plays any major leadership role for terrorist except in war torn combat zones. Maybe the idea is to empower motivated individuals to initiate acts of terrorism without support from the dispersed Al Qaeda leadership.

We now see extensive use of the Internet for communication and recruiting and a new English language publication for the world to read.

It seems that the terrorist mentioned above were all motivated by some form of the extremist propaganda that is being widely distributed in a variety of means.

The GWOT has not gone away and the nonsense of the Washington Post “expose” of our intelligence activities doesn’t help but to make us look like fools and vulnerable to the would be individual terrorist.

“The price of freedom is eternal vigilance.” Thomas Jefferson

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All law enforcement agencies are the front line of defense against terrorism. However, terrorists are well trained and can easily spot police, Coast Guard or law enforcement patrols. Terrorists may not know what to look for in an alert citizenry – every man, woman and youth in America.  

There are Seven Signs of Terrorism:

1. Reconnaissance/surveillance: The reconnaissance cell will scout out the target and may use still cameras, video cameras, draw maps or diagrams, etc., to help get the layout of the target.
2. Elicitation: A reconnaissance cell member may go around asking unusual questions about security at a given location or ask about first responders.
3. Test of Security:  The terrorist cell will test security at high value targets.
4. Logistics/gathering supplies: It takes false documents, supplies for a number of people, explosives, and special equipment to support the terrorist.
5. Suspicious people: Individuals may seem innocent enough but what they are doing may arouse suspicion.
6. Dry run or test: The terrorist will take time and test their plan. Non-government or non-official “workers” loitering around a target may arouse your suspicions. Men coming and going from a house/apartment at all hours may be suspicious.
7. Deploying assets or getting into position: Putting people in place near a target may arouse your suspicions. This may be the last chance to catch the criminals or terrorists.

     Suspicious people performing any of the above activities or signs of hazardous materials in the wrong hands need to be INVESTIGATED. It is not suspicious people but SUSPICIOUS ACTIVITIES that may need to be acted on by local law enforcement.

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The Department of Homeland Security, or is it Insecurity, has made its quarterly change in procedures for the Transportation Security Agency and air travelers. Last quarter it was all the knee jerk reactions to the Christmas day attempted bomber.

An AP news report says that the “U.S. government is refining its terror-screening policy.”

I kid you not.

The U.S. government must now see “terror” as a threat that needed a new policy to “focus on specific terror threats and not travelers’ nationalities.”

Funny I thought terrorist were the threat not terror.

Confused or just terrified?

According to the Saturday, April 3, 2010, AP report, the 14 countries that have been home to “terrorist” are no longer a threat but TSA will expand the “pool of foreign travelers targeted for extra screening.”

I know a woman who goes home to the UK about every three or four months to visit her aging mother who lives in assisted living and gets “extra screening” every time she comes back to the USofA.

This is a woman who had an unlimited green card but that was taken away. She was a Marine Corps wife for 15 years of a 28 year marriage, who was responsible for the care and comfort of Marine spouses for the four commanding officer assignments and deployments, and taught grade school to American children.

They wrote to one Georgia senator who sent back a form letter saying that they were sorry but there was nothing they could do.

So, now I bet it will get worse for her.

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The Al Qaeda network today is comprised of affiliated groups, franchises and semi-autonomous or self radicalized individuals, who want to carry out attacks against U.S. targets. The core Al Qaeda leadership is thought to be spread around Pakistan.

Al Qaeda now seems to have less centralized command and control, and no clear center of gravity. Al Qaeda franchises or affiliated groups active in countries such as Pakistan, Yemen (Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula) and Somalia now represent critical power centers in the larger movement. Some affiliates receive guidance, money, training, and weapons.

Al Qaeda in Iraq was one of Al Qaeda’s most powerful and successful affiliates outside Pakistan. In late 2006, however, Sunni tribes in Iraq turned against Al Qaeda in Iraq and helped the U.S. military reduce substantially their activities and influence.

Here are the major Al Qaeda affiliates:

• Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
• Al Qaeda in Iraq
• Taliban in Afghanistan
• Taliban in Pakistan
• Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) in Pakistan
• Jemaah Islamiyain in SE Asia and mostly Indonesia
• Abu Syyaf in the Philippines

There are other Arabic/Palestinian terrorist groups like HizbAllah, al Fatah, Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood who have attacked American targets but most attacks are directed at Israelis.

The most dangerous and most violent is thought to be the Chechen “Wolves.” Remember the Beslan Public School and the Moscow Theater in Russia? Osama bin Laden was known to have 300 Chechens in his 055 Brigade which was smashed in the U.S and U.K. invasion in 2001/02.

Anyone who thinks there is no Global War on Terrorism is not getting out very much.

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Shortly after noon on Christmas Day, federal agents were notified that Northwest Airlines Flight 253 had arrived at the Detroit airport from Amsterdam, with a passenger, Farouk Abdulmutallah, who had tried to blow up the aircraft.

So, what’s the big deal about the FBI arrest and questioning of the suspect and not turning him over to the military as an enemy combatant?

The bomb had severely burned Abdulmutallab, but he was conscious and talking to everyone. As he was taken from the airport, he told the EMTs and others that he was part of Al Qaeda. He told them where he came from and he told them about the faulty explosive device. However, when the FBI read him his Miranda legal rights after the incident, he went silent.

There was no effort to call in the federal “High-Value Interrogation Group,” a special team of terror specialists that the Administration created last year to deal with terror suspects captured abroad.

He should have been placed immediately in military custody and there would have been no question of Miranda rights. There was much actionable Intelligence that may have been learned if the military had questioned him.

He remains silent today.

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The United Nations has said that a Security Council  committee removed five former senior Taliban officials from its sanctions list which Afghan President Hamid Karzai has asked for.

The United Nations said in a statement that the decision was made on the basis of a review of the original listings and the five would no longer be subject to international travel bans and asset  freezes.

It would be a safe guess that the five are senior leaders of the Taliban and probably would not become a martyr with a suicide bombing.

Every wonder why the senior leaders of Al Qaeda, the Taliban, etc., have never shown the way to martyrdom?

Maybe they know it is not a sure way to heaven but to the other place…

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